Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 115.116076 132.441300 152.141831 176.337578 205.438503 239.543882 282.880720
2025-12-07 92.476356 114.165157 141.104626 177.506811 226.159830 290.038087 382.116228
2025-12-14 79.638960 103.472425 135.064610 180.966017 247.612862 343.594449 497.602745
2025-12-21 69.634496 94.090993 128.187262 180.668565 262.198408 389.108691 612.698104
2025-12-28 65.163372 91.293236 129.477929 191.569462 294.594245 467.942167 804.391251
2026-01-04 60.941663 88.064177 129.344785 199.795802 323.826089 548.064530 1025.453312
2026-01-11 57.055742 84.715369 128.352989 206.130829 350.692839 630.267676 1281.238080
2026-01-18 53.131470 80.758263 125.727799 209.012006 371.542456 705.943750 1553.564679
2026-01-25 49.289555 76.458744 121.908790 208.990918 386.556678 773.271805 1835.443345
2026-02-01 45.236158 71.364101 116.079120 204.240424 390.875189 817.960578 2078.283455
2026-02-08 41.644124 66.699024 110.467588 199.042177 393.148758 858.419393 2329.423814
2026-02-15 38.514475 62.546234 105.327465 194.022299 394.798756 897.792564 2598.681587
2026-02-22 37.798100 62.683814 108.277873 206.390373 440.026924 1068.013111 3439.666963
2026-03-01 35.883533 60.467735 106.513791 208.503445 461.264057 1180.254504 4157.752513
2026-03-08 34.395258 58.897194 105.821642 212.863303 489.317423 1324.094951 5146.403693
2026-03-15 32.569860 56.520502 103.249900 212.528523 504.889984 1434.837573 6096.012559
2026-03-22 32.180466 56.868287 106.277256 225.861822 562.022081 1714.054369 8321.564351
2026-03-29 31.488202 56.548714 107.855216 235.944598 612.729260 1997.723337 11068.347066
2026-04-05 30.635786 55.826318 108.475746 243.722113 658.777101 2290.103415 14489.561907
2026-04-12 29.518322 54.463644 107.532284 247.263088 692.313943 2549.699517 18276.310152
2026-04-19 28.233516 52.649407 105.386236 247.237173 713.958568 2768.763797 22292.337429
2026-04-26 26.661304 50.113843 101.349736 241.400189 713.747752 2881.233546 25469.964268
2026-05-03 25.175642 47.664253 97.306918 235.020499 710.238225 2977.153756 28808.920176